posted
An Arabian King dies and Oil Prices are friggin'getting wierd? Is there a trend here........? They are messin'around wid shyt.(AS Karyn, would say). And him and George, holding hands? Hmmm?
CrazyJack
-------------------- Jack Wills Studio Design Works 1465 E.Hidalgo Circle Nye Beach / Newport, OR Posts: 2914 | From: Rocklin, CA. USA | Registered: Dec 1998
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posted
Prices aren't weird, just high. Never to go back but only higher. Could be the planets are aligned wrong for all I know. A million conspiracy theories will abound on this one.
-------------------- Wright Signs Wyandotte, Michigan Posts: 2785 | From: Wyandotte, MI USA | Registered: Jan 1999
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posted
Actually, gas prices are fairly reasonable considering that - adjusted for inflation - the price of a barrel of oil in 1980 was approximately $85us.
In 1980, the average price for a gallon of Regular in my neck of the woods was $1.20. Adjusted for inflation, that same gallon would sell for $3.05us today.
The issues with Saudi Arabia isn't what has been causing the 40% spike over the past year. China has been increasing its demand for oil by over 100% the past few years.
Couple that with the recent nationalization of the Venezuela oil industry by Hugo Chavez and the industry strike in the Netherlands last year, the oil market has become unstable. You also have the political unrest going on in Nigeria to contend with.
The top two oil suppliers to the use are Mexico and Canada. Saudi Arabia is third, Venezuela is fourth and Nigeria is fifth. Saudi Arabia only accounts for 14.9% of the oil consumed in the US.
The other problem is that the US has not built any new refineries in nearly 25 years and the ones we have are operating at near capacity.
Another issue is the fact that the EPA mandates that there be 40+ different formulas. If the refineries were permitted to consolidate some of the formulas so that there were fewer of them, you'd see a definite drop in fuel prices.
Personally, I blame all those new quickie-stickie sign shops cropping up.
As for Bush holding Abdullah's hand, you just need to learn to be more culturally sensitive.
.
[ August 10, 2005, 08:58 PM: Message edited by: Glenn Taylor ]
posted
Actually, the roots of this thing go back decades. The wealthy industrialists wanted a society that was more easily manipulated, part of this included the elimination of skilled artisans.
So under the pretext of war, the Eniack computer was developed, but it's real goal was to be the 'brain' of machines that were 'skillful'. A steady stream of calculated technical progress led to the availability of personel computers in every home and business. In order to appear less deliberate, a competitor was established, with the innocent looking logo of a common fruit.
After numerous meetings of the trilateral commision, the U.N. and others, it was decided that the most visible and obvious reminders of skilled labor were to be targeted first, thus sign writers came into focus.
By making sign machines widely available, layout and artistic, tasteful color choices were seldom practiced, as many operators knew little of the 'old ways'.
What the planners of this scheme didn't count on was a movement that came to be known as "THE LETTERHEADS". The most vocal advocates of this movement have come under close, but secret scrutiny. Especially the ones that promote it on busy, popular, well liked websites.
The final outcome is not yet known, time will tell...
-------------------- James Donahue Donahue Sign Arts 1851 E. Union Valley Rd. Seymour TN. (865) 577-3365 brushman@nxs.net
Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what's for lunch, Benjamin Franklin Posts: 2057 | From: 1033 W. Union Valley Rd. | Registered: Feb 2003
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Go to the middle east.. becoem friends with a male over there,, fail to hold his hand ,, you will find yourself being called strange,,
haha
-------------------- Leaper of Tall buildings.. If you find my posts divisive or otherwise snarky please ignore them. If you do not know how then PM me about it and I will demonstrate. Posts: 5274 | From: Im a nowhere man | Registered: Jul 2001
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Now you people know that CANADA exports more resources than "Mad Cow and Softwood Lumber" for your needs......
I wish your government would pull up to the plate, and sit down to P.E.I. Potatoes and a thick Alberta Steak for once! Under a house built with Canadian Spruce or Pine...............
What the hell!.. We will throw in some Off Shore natural gas for your BBQ.....
Need some water to wash this down with? I know we got some somewhere..
-------------------- Stephen Deveau RavenGraphics Insinx Digital Displays
Letting Your Imagination Run Wild! Posts: 4327 | From: Lower Sackville, Nova Scotia, Canada | Registered: Jan 2000
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posted
Anytime we put our people in harms way, we better be sure, and it better be for reasons other than just profits for the rich. Our young people are our most precious resource. They have honorably and noblely done their jobs without question and with the greatest resolve. It would be a shame if their sacrifices were for naught.
Lies and deceptions by world leaders with backroom wrangling in the guise of some greater good is the most criminal of all acts. Let's hope this is not the case, because the world will eventually know the truth, and the greedy will be despised and hunted down. It ain't lookin' good so far.
Meanwhile we better be trying to save our planet and seek other fuels. It seems those people in the hot spots of the world like the Middle East have their own issues to resolve. All the king's horses and all the king's men won't fix their problems. Should it be up to us?
-------------------- Bill Diaz Diaz Sign Art Pontiac IL www.diazsignart.com Posts: 2107 | From: Pontiac, IL | Registered: Dec 2001
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Wow Glenn. I'm impressed. Your numbers are factual and presented in an objective way. Good on you.
I also notice plain & simple, a demand for gas during peak traveling seasons always increases prices. It just 'seems' like everyone's makin' that last vacation sprint before school starts again. I look for it to go down after school starts.
Don't forget Mr. Bill, this war is still about 9-11.
-------------------- Signs Sweet Home Alabama
oneshot on chat
"Look like a girl, act like a lady, think like a man, work like a dog" Posts: 5758 | From: "Sweet Home" Alabama | Registered: Mar 2003
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posted
One subject that Glenn's thorough analysis doesn't touch on is "Peak Oil". As mentioned in another oil/pricing related post, The End of Suburbia is an excellent, though sobering documentary on Peak Oil's implications.
-------------------- Jon Aston MARKETING PARTNERS "Strategy, Marketing and Business Development" Tel 705-719-9209 Posts: 1724 | From: Barrie, ON, CANADA | Registered: Sep 2000
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quote:Originally posted by Sheila Ferrell: Don't forget Mr. Bill, this war is still about 9-11.
Sheila...does the 'winkie' mean you're joking?
-------------------- Jon Aston MARKETING PARTNERS "Strategy, Marketing and Business Development" Tel 705-719-9209 Posts: 1724 | From: Barrie, ON, CANADA | Registered: Sep 2000
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quote:Originally posted by Bill Diaz: Anytime we put our people in harms way, we better be sure, and it better be for reasons other than just profits for the rich. Our young people are our most precious resource. They have honorably and noblely done their jobs without question and with the greatest resolve. It would be a shame if their sacrifices were for naught.
Lies and deceptions by world leaders with backroom wrangling in the guise of some greater good is the most criminal of all acts. Let's hope this is not the case, because the world will eventually know the truth, and the greedy will be despised and hunted down. It ain't lookin' good so far.
Meanwhile we better be trying to save our planet and seek other fuels. It seems those people in the hot spots of the world like the Middle East have their own issues to resolve. All the king's horses and all the king's men won't fix their problems. Should it be up to us?
What a horrible thing to suggest. If the US wanted Iraq's oil we would have taken it by now. On the one hand Bush isn't doing enough about oil prices and on the other hand he did too much for oil. Anything to avoid reality I guess.
-------------------- Jim Upchurch Artworks Olympia WA Posts: 797 | From: Olympia, WA | Registered: Nov 1998
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quote:Originally posted by Sheila Ferrell: Don't forget Mr. Bill, this war is still about 9-11.
No, that's what the media wants you to believe Shiela.
This war is just a continuance of all the past struggles in the Middle East and it's hypocracy back in the 80's that started the last major battle when the US gave weapons to Saddam and trained his troops to take down the Ayahtola.
Welcome to the US Target of the Month Club. The US carries much fault in this because it's things like the above example that make those other countries despise us. The US chooses its allies based on who else has a beef with the current target of the day, regardless of if they were previously an enemy too.
War and everything else are just convenient excuses for oil prices to climb simply because it's in the Middle East, just like hurricanes in Florida were the scapegoat for lumber prices going up, as if there are no other alternatives for these resources.
**Edit**: I'm solicited at least twice a day by investment companies pimping stocks in oil. Obviously the oil market is being driven by investors "getting a piece of the action", just like the real estate boom - in other words, it's artificially inflated.
[ August 11, 2005, 12:08 PM: Message edited by: Mike Pipes ]
-------------------- "If I share all my wisdom I won't have any left for myself."
Mike Pipes stickerpimp.com Lake Havasu, AZ mike@stickerpimp.com Posts: 8746 | From: Lake Havasu, AZ USA | Registered: Jun 2000
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quote:Originally posted by Jon Aston: One subject that Glenn's thorough analysis doesn't touch on is "Peak Oil". As mentioned in another oil/pricing related post, The End of Suburbia is an excellent, though sobering documentary on Peak Oil's implications.
Actually, I'm very familiar with "Peak Oil". There is truth to what it says. I agree with the "The actual peak year will only be known after it has passed" statement.
I also remember in 1970 that we were being told that "the world would run out of oil in thirty years."
One of the good things about adversity - in this case the rising cost of oil - is that it forces us to adapt. I doubt the dramatic improvements in electric motors, batteries and alternative fuels this past decade would have happened otherwise.
But, I don't think the "Peak Oil" senario is going to have as dramatic effect as the study suggests. The human species is a pretty resilient one.
***
Back to Kissy's response to my comment about quickie-stickie shops, it got me to thinking about how the sign industry has changed and how much more it depends on oil than it did just 20 years ago.
Back then, our little commercial shop relied primarily on MDO, lumber and paint.
Today, its Coroplast, vinyl, Alumalite, Dibond and HDU.
It makes me wonder just how much more of a demand the industry has made on the need for oil.
***
As for the current war and who lied and whether or not its about 9/11, its all debatable. And I'd be happy to debate it with anyone who'd like to, but not here. I think we can all agree that its a touchy subject and that Steve & Barb have better things to do than make sure we all don't get overheated on the subject. If anyone really would like to debate it, let me know. I can direct you to a more appropriate forum where we can duke it out.
posted
Glenn, Can you elaborate on the statement, "Another issue is the fact that the EPA mandates that there be 40+ different formulas. If the refineries were permitted to consolidate some of the formulas so that there were fewer of them, you'd see a definite drop in fuel prices."
I never heard of this element before. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.
I think your comments bout the oil based products used in our shops today is right on. I keep waiting for the shoe to drop and the vinyl prices to skyrocket. HMMM that will make PAINT(ed signs) more VALLUABLE again! I'd welcome a bit of relief to the slower pace of the "traditional paint" sign days.
It makes me ask the obvious questions, tongue-in-cheek:
If the war is NOT about 9-11, then WHAT are we DOING ABOUT 9-11? What would you like to do about it, Pimp?? If the war is NOT about 9-11, should'nt someone be responding to the act of war that was perpetrated against us that day?
I'm sorry to have to say, if the 60's 'Let it be' mentality, or the opposite mentality of 'back & forth' retaliation are the only 'actions' people can come up with, get ready for the US war-zone destruction that would otherwise be coming except for a military that is willing to continue to fend it off...
-------------------- Signs Sweet Home Alabama
oneshot on chat
"Look like a girl, act like a lady, think like a man, work like a dog" Posts: 5758 | From: "Sweet Home" Alabama | Registered: Mar 2003
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I dont have the bookmarks that glenn has but the boutique fuels (gas specific to a certain region or state) demanded by the epa and state legislatures serve to make fuel production more expensive.
We have a limited number of refinement plants because the federal government had made it impossible to build new plants in the US. Combine that with an increasing demand for fuel and more varieties of fuel and you are eventually going to push their capabilities to the maximum. Last summer (i believe) a refinement plant had a bad day and beause of that Illinois nearly ran out of the specific blend of fuel(ethanol) that the state required.
The EPA has a number of documents that show this on their boutique fuels page. Several documents show how certain blends reduce overall capacity and how upcoming standards will reduce capacity even more. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/boutique.htm
By the way, readers should try "Bottomless Well" sometime.
-------------------- Paul McDowell 7 Hills Signs Virginia Posts: 84 | From: Lynchburg, Virginia | Registered: Oct 2004
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For what it's worth... Comparing today's computer generated signage to yesterday's hand painted signage actually says to me that the hand painted days have no value to the sign world of today. BUT, there was definately less hassle by the painter. What is convenient (now only) has to do with the customer and it is in a range of usually "how cheap can I get it for?" As a journeyman, sign guy I gave a lot of stuff away, but in the long run it brought me more work and money with a lot less trips to the supply house who are the people who make the better part of the project money. Argue all day but cost to operate was always less yesterday and most of the money went home. Period.....................and I didn't need an accountant then. It's a bean counters world today and they control the fast shops. Hand Painted, RULES !
CrazyJack
-------------------- Jack Wills Studio Design Works 1465 E.Hidalgo Circle Nye Beach / Newport, OR Posts: 2914 | From: Rocklin, CA. USA | Registered: Dec 1998
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Don't you think we might be seeing evidence that we are already past the peak?
(Mike "Tranny" O'Neil posted some interesting reading here and I added a few additional bits of reading from the same source here, if you're interested.)
The problem isn't that we will run out of oil. The problem is that the cost of extracting oil from an oilfield that has passed it's peak increases sharply - because it takes increasingly more energy to extract - not to mention consequently increasing costs of transporting, processing lower grade, more expensive oil...and distributing it (a sort of exponential 'double-whammy', when you think about it).
When the world's supply peaks...
Seriously: Rent "The End of Suburbia" if you can. If you can't...buy it. I know the title sounds apocalyptic...but that isn't the point (not at all). The point is that "peak oil" is coming...hard and fast. We may already be there. Better to accept the likelyhood and begin taking (or at least planning to take) steps to adapt now. Your government isn't going to do it for you, anymore than mine is for me. It has to happen on a local, grassroots level.
[ August 12, 2005, 09:08 AM: Message edited by: Jon Aston ]
-------------------- Jon Aston MARKETING PARTNERS "Strategy, Marketing and Business Development" Tel 705-719-9209 Posts: 1724 | From: Barrie, ON, CANADA | Registered: Sep 2000
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Although I agree Jon that oil prices and energy prices are probably going even higher, those apocolyptic books you refer to, go too far. At least it remains to be seen. Remember Paul Ehrlich's Population Bomb? It sure seemed reasonable at the time to many people.
Always a another modern day Malthus to come along. That's not to say I won't be ready.
-------------------- Wright Signs Wyandotte, Michigan Posts: 2785 | From: Wyandotte, MI USA | Registered: Jan 1999
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The cold war era Russian "Suitcase" nukes that were planted all over the US in anticipation of a nuclear war by the Russians have been identified and sold by Rogue ex-kgb agents to Al-Qaeda.
The "American Hiroshima" as Al-Qaeda calls it, will be detonated in tandem soon enough, according to investigative reports, and then Mike will see the light....most likely literally.....about the importance of knocking out the Muslim fanatics.
Regarding oil? I believe we should have taken over all of Iraq's oil resources temporarily, and extracted what we felt was compensation for freeing the Iraqi's from Sadaam. The majority of Iraqi's are glad we made the change - - they should pay for our expenses with their oil.
Now...for the "don't worry ... be happy" part:
If you purchase a gasoline powered car today....that will probably be the last one you'll purchase because hybrids will become the norm in just a few short years...and that's a fact. Toyota and Honda are leading the way with everyone else ramping up and following fast.
Hydrogen powered vehicles are following quickly behind and will be the overwhelming automotive choice within 15 years, when we have a fully expanded fueling infrastructure.
They are not "being" developed.....they have BEEN developed...are very reliable, and provide the same safety factor we have come to live with with gasoline powered vehicles. No need to worry about driving around with a "bomb" in your vehicle....we've accepted the fact that we drive around with 16 gallons of highly flamable, combustable, explosive fuel in them haven't we? They're refinning the process of how to attain the hydro in more efficient ways now....and there's an endless supply of it. Mark my words...it's on it's way.
Hydro's will be a huge factor in our independence from the oil nuts. Products will still require oil...but think of what a massive decrease in demand there will be when we begin the hydro changeover... you guys have to start watching "Modern Marvels" more on the history channel.
-------------------- Todd Gill Outside The Lines Potterville, MI Posts: 7792 | From: Potterville, MI | Registered: Dec 2001
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quote:Originally posted by David Wright: That's not to say I won't be ready.
..and that's really my point, David.
Like you, I would much rather prepare for and manage predictable change than be subject to it.
That's it from me on the subject.
-------------------- Jon Aston MARKETING PARTNERS "Strategy, Marketing and Business Development" Tel 705-719-9209 Posts: 1724 | From: Barrie, ON, CANADA | Registered: Sep 2000
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posted
Leaving politics aside, the one thing Glenn didn't mention has to do with the price of energy in the early 80s being higher relatively speaking than the current prices.
The two oil embargoes of the 70s translated into a round of inflation that IMHO the economy never fully recovered from. Remember WIN---the "whip inflation now" buttons? The prices of everything went through the roof, in the meantime energy prices slowed, and eventually fell behind to a level that the public could live with.
If I had to make a guess, it would be that we are in for another round of inflation due only to the current spike in crude, that will make the inflation of the late 70s look like a warm up exercise.
Winter is on it's way, and I don't look forward to home heating prices on top of gas prices.
bill preston
[ August 12, 2005, 11:43 AM: Message edited by: Bill Preston ]
-------------------- Bill Preston Fly Creek, N.Y. USA Posts: 943 | From: Fly Creek, N.Y. USA | Registered: Jan 2000
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Todd, yep they are not on the way, they are here, NOW.
Those hydrogen cars Honda and Toyota are working on are on the road for testing, I've seen them in my area. They're easy to spot, they have big vinyl Le Bras covering body panels so they're tough yet not impossible to identify, and they run without a single trace of noise. They fuel up at Hydrogen stations (solar powered electrolosis plants) in Las Vegas, 2.5 hours away from here. We don't have any Hyrogen stations here so we know they have at least a 5 hour range.
Ford and Nissan have some stuff in the works too, they're also doing road tests. Nissan always tests their vehicles out here and Ford has a proving grounds 45 minutes away.
Last weekend I also saw what appears to be some kind of Chevy or GMC truck under wraps. That could have just been a regular new model under testing though, doubt they'd build a hybrid or H-powered Full size truck.
There's even a hydrogen fuel cell powered motorcycle by a UK firm Intelligent Energy - people complain it's *too* quiet, because it sounds like a laptop computer.. LOL
-------------------- "If I share all my wisdom I won't have any left for myself."
Mike Pipes stickerpimp.com Lake Havasu, AZ mike@stickerpimp.com Posts: 8746 | From: Lake Havasu, AZ USA | Registered: Jun 2000
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Mike - GM also has a hydro car completed and it's built on what they call a "skateboard" chassis. Amazingly, the entire drive train fits within a frame that is only 12" tall....and this gives them the option of putting whatever body style they want atop it....they're talking about the ability to buy a particular model car, and then buy another completely different body style to switch it out...kind of like having a couple pair of designer sunglasses...although I doubt anyone but the well off or excessively shallow would go to those extremes....
The Truck you saw was most likely a new body style design for Chevy/GMC.....I heard that they are changing body styles in '07......
GM does offer a "hybrid" of sorts in a 2 wheel drive extended cab only model now (I believe it's a 2005 - or for sure '06).....which has only the electrical system running off a fuel cell. They figure the electrical system accounts for a fair amount of loss of fuel economy as it is a drain on engine performance.....so they say this will give them maybe 10-15% better fuel economy.
Not sure what the long range plans are for trucks in regards to fuel technology.
One thing...I do agree with all who talk about the myriad standards of refining....they need to get to one for diesel and one for gas and stay there.
-------------------- Todd Gill Outside The Lines Potterville, MI Posts: 7792 | From: Potterville, MI | Registered: Dec 2001
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I watched something the other night on one of the TLC or Discovery channels. It was about a guy who was perfecting an alternate fuel for automobiles. I forget a lot of the details but it had to do with altering water. He first developed this for something altogether different like a welding process. Anyway, it alters the makeup of water ( I think ) and when a few drops of gasoline were added to the concoction, it made for a fuel that produced milage figures in the 90 mpg range. I wish I had paid better attention but a lot of it was way over my head.I
-------------------- George Perkins Millington,TN. goatwell@bigriver.net
"I started out with nothing and still have most of it left"
posted
That's nice, George, but don't you see yet how this all works?
Once they develop a fuel that requires mixing "altered" water and a few drops of gasoline, the price of gasoline will go up to two bucks a drop, and our water bill will go through the roof.
I'm sorry for not getting back to you last night. My air compressor siezed up and burned the motor out and I'm been scrambling to get it fixed.
I think Paul pretty much covered it. This link might be of use to you. It can better expain things better than I can.
******
Jon,
I don't think we've "peaked" yet. In fact, I think its farther down the road than we realize. The reason why I say this is because we are sitting on untold billions, even trillions of barrels of oil because of the effective efforts by environmentalist organizations to prevent the opening of new fields in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coasts of California and North Carolina and elsewhere.
It was just announced yesterday that a new field has been discovered in the North Sea. Link
When you factor those things in along with the new techologies in hybrid and hydrogen-fueled vehicles, I think the overall supply will stretch further than what anyone can reasonably surmise. David's comment about "The Population Bomb" is a perfect example of why I'm skeptical of such doom'n'gloom.
*****
Bill,
I don't think inflation is going to be as big a factor as it was in the 1970's. I tend to agree with people such as Dr. Walter E. Williams when he says that inflation is when the Dollar is worth less because Congress printed too much (I'm paraphasing).
Greenspan has done a good job of preventing too much money from being printed and flooding the market as it was back then. Its one of the reasons why inflation has remained low inspite of the jumps in the price of oil in 2000 through 2005.
****
Now here's a quiz for all of you.
Which state mandates a "Minimum" gasoline price? In other words, you are prevented by law from selling gasoline below a certain price.
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![[I Don t Know]](graemlins/dunno.gif)
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